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Shareholders might have noticed that SG Fleet Group Limited (ASX:SGF) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.3% to AU$2.99 in the past week. SG Fleet Group reported AU$1.1b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.26 beat expectations, being 3.5% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for SG Fleet Group
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for SG Fleet Group from four analysts is for revenues of AU$1.17b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 3.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 9.0% to AU$0.24 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$1.17b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.28 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at AU$3.41, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on SG Fleet Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at AU$3.60 and the most bearish at AU$3.18 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that SG Fleet Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 22% over the past five years. Compare this to the 23 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while SG Fleet Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.