In This Article:
Last week, you might have seen that Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.6% to US$12.97 in the past week. It looks like a positive result overall, with revenues of US$5.0b beating forecasts by 6.3%. Statutory losses of US$4.69 per share were roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
View our latest analysis for Rivian Automotive
Following the latest results, Rivian Automotive's 24 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$5.29b in 2025. This would be an okay 6.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 11% from last year to US$3.72. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$5.18b and US$3.56 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Rivian Automotive after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a moderate increase in per-share loss expectations.
The consensus price target stayed unchanged at US$15.18, seeming to suggest that higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Rivian Automotive analyst has a price target of US$23.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$6.10. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Rivian Automotive's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Rivian Automotive's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 67% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Rivian Automotive.