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Shareholders might have noticed that KMD Brands Limited (NZSE:KMD) filed its half-yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.7% to NZ$0.36 in the past week. Overall the results were a little better than the analysts were expecting, with revenues beating forecasts by 3.0%to hit NZ$471m. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, KMD Brands' six analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be NZ$997.8m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory losses are forecast to balloon 94% to NZ$0.005 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of NZ$990.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.0057 in 2025. While the analysts have made no real change to their revenue estimates, we can see that the consensus is now modelling a loss next year - a clear dip in sentiment compared to the previous outlook of a profit.
Check out our latest analysis for KMD Brands
With the increase in forecast losses for next year, it's perhaps no surprise to see that the average price target dipped 6.7% to NZ$0.49, with the analysts signalling that growing losses would be a definite concern. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values KMD Brands at NZ$0.60 per share, while the most bearish prices it at NZ$0.40. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that KMD Brands' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.4% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than KMD Brands.