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The investors in adesso SE's (ETR:ADN1) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 23% to €86.20 in the week following its third-quarter results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of €330m and statutory earnings per share of €0.49. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for adesso
After the latest results, the six analysts covering adesso are now predicting revenues of €1.47b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 472% to €4.03. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.47b and earnings per share (EPS) of €5.55 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.
The average price target fell 8.1% to €122, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic adesso analyst has a price target of €160 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €75.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that adesso's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 23% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while adesso's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for adesso. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.