Last week, you might have seen that Medios AG (ETR:ILM1) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.1% to €17.80 in the past week. Medios reported €419m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €0.25 beat expectations, being 4.2% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Medios
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Medios' four analysts is for revenues of €1.80b in 2023, which would reflect a solid 14% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 95% to €1.14. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.81b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.26 in 2023. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
The average price target fell 9.8% to €45.80, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Medios at €65.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €30.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Medios' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 39% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Medios' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.