Retail giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) is set to unveil its first quarter 2013 results on May 17, 2012, before the market opens.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter is $1.04 per share (year-over-year increase of 6%), which is within the company’s guidance range of $1.01 – $1.06 per share. The Zacks Consensus Revenue Estimate for the first quarter is $110,647 million (year-over-year increase of 7%).
Fourth Quarter Overview
Walmart reported fourth-quarter 2012 results of $1.44 per share, surpassing the prior-year earnings by 7.5%. The fourth quarter results were also within the company's guidance of $1.42 to $1.48 per share. However, the results lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny.
Walmart’s net sales, including fuel, in the fourth-quarter climbed 5.8% to $122.3 billion from $115.6 billion in the year-ago quarter. It, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Revenue Estimate of $123.6 billion.
(Read our full coverage on this earnings report: Wal-Mart Ups Y/Y, Provides Outlook).
Agreement of Estimates Revision
Over the past 7 days, all 19 analysts providing estimates on Walmart have left them for the first quarter of 2013 unchanged. Similarly, earnings estimates were unmoved for the fiscal 2013 by 22 analysts providing estimates over the same period.
Over the past 30 days, only one of the 19 analysts providing estimates on Walmart has revised its earnings estimate for the first quarter of 2013 in a positive direction. Earnings estimates for 2013 were also increased by one analyst out of 22 analysts over the last 30 days.
We remain encouraged by the continuous positive comp sales delivered by the company. The company regularly buybacks shares and has recently increased its dividends, thereby returning value to its shareholders. The acquisition of the majority ownership position in Massmart Holdings in Africa has further expanded the company’s international presence, which we believe has driven the estimate revision upwards.
Magnitude of Estimate Revisions
The earnings estimate for the first quarter as well as fiscal 2013 has remained static over the past 7 days and 30 days at $1.04 per share and at $4.85 per share, respectively.
Surprise History
Walmart has surpassed earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters, with break-even in one quarter. The company has recorded a maximum positive surprise of 3.16%, with a minimum of negative surprise of 0.69%. On average, the earnings surprise was positive 1.13%.
Our Recommendation
Walmart, which competes with Target Corp (TGT), currently has a Neutral recommendation. The stock carries a Zacks #3 Rank (a short-term Hold rating).