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Last week, you might have seen that National Bank of Canada (TSE:NA) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.1% to CA$96.11 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CA$8.9b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at CA$8.96 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for National Bank of Canada
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from National Bank of Canada's eleven analysts is for revenues of CA$9.49b in 2022, which would reflect a modest 6.4% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be CA$9.02, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CA$9.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$8.95 in 2022. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of CA$106, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic National Bank of Canada analyst has a price target of CA$113 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$99.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2022 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 6.4% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 7.2% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 4.0% annually. So although National Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.