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Shareholders might have noticed that NanoXplore Inc. (TSE:GRA) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.5% to CA$2.35 in the past week. It was a moderately negative result overall - revenue fell 3.4% short of analyst estimates at CA$34m, and statutory losses were in line with analyst expectations, at CA$0.02 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on NanoXplore after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for NanoXplore
Following the latest results, NanoXplore's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of CA$152.1m in 2025. This would be a meaningful 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 10% from last year to CA$0.056. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CA$152.9m and CA$0.043 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on NanoXplore even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a very substantial increase in per-share losses.
The consensus price target held steady at CA$4.51, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on NanoXplore, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$8.45 and the most bearish at CA$3.25 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of NanoXplore'shistorical trends, as the 18% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 16% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 4.1% annually. So although NanoXplore is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.