The Swatch Group AG (VTX:UHR) missed earnings with its latest yearly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CHF6.7b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 53%, coming in at just CHF3.74 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Swatch Group's 18 analysts is for revenues of CHF6.99b in 2025. This would reflect a satisfactory 3.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 106% to CHF7.69. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CHF6.99b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF8.11 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for Swatch Group
The consensus price target held steady at CHF163, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Swatch Group at CHF290 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CHF120. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Swatch Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 3.7% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.2% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 7.5% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Swatch Group is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.