Sibanye Stillwater Limited (JSE:SSW) missed earnings with its latest yearly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with R138b revenue coming in 5.0% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of R6.50 missed the mark badly, arriving some 21% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Sibanye Stillwater after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for Sibanye Stillwater
After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Sibanye Stillwater are now predicting revenues of R153.0b in 2023. If met, this would reflect a notable 11% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 49% to R9.67. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of R161.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of R10.67 in 2023. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the R57.97 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Sibanye Stillwater analyst has a price target of R95.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at R40.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Sibanye Stillwater's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 28% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Sibanye Stillwater's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.