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REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX) just released its latest first-quarter report and things are not looking great. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of US$89m missed by 16%, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.12 fell short of forecasts by 64%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
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Following the latest results, REGENXBIO's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$379.8m in 2025. This would be a major 142% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. REGENXBIO is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.62 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$325.3m and losses of US$0.37 per share in 2025. It looks like there's been a definite improvement in business conditions, with a revenue upgrade expected to lead to profitability sooner than previously forecast.
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Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$32.17, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic REGENXBIO analyst has a price target of US$52.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$13.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that REGENXBIO's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 226% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 7.8% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 17% per year. So it looks like REGENXBIO is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.