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It's been a pretty great week for Nordex SE (ETR:NDX1) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to €13.05 in the week since its latest yearly results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of €7.3b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 36% to hit €0.04 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for Nordex
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Nordex from eleven analysts is for revenues of €7.65b in 2025. If met, it would imply an okay 4.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 1,649% to €0.65. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €7.71b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.68 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
The consensus price target held steady at €17.39, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Nordex, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €20.60 and the most bearish at €14.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Nordex's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nordex's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Nordex.