It's been a mediocre week for Grand City Properties S.A. (ETR:GYC) shareholders, with the stock dropping 15% to €7.35 in the week since its latest full-year results. Results overall were not great, with earnings of €0.76 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit €583m and were slightly better than forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Grand City Properties

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the seven analysts covering Grand City Properties, is for revenues of €544.0m in 2023, which would reflect a small 6.6% reduction in Grand City Properties' sales over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -€1.50 per share in 2023. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €566.2m and losses of €1.50 per share in 2023.

There was no real change to the average price target of €12.85, suggesting that the revisions to revenue estimates are not expected to have a long-term impact on Grand City Properties' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Grand City Properties analyst has a price target of €26.20 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €8.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 6.6% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 0.8% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 5.2% per year. The forecasts do look bearish for Grand City Properties, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.