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Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 23% over the past week following First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:FWRG) latest quarterly results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$252m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 36% to hit US$0.03 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
See our latest analysis for First Watch Restaurant Group
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from First Watch Restaurant Group's ten analysts is for revenues of US$1.17b in 2025. This reflects a notable 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 15% to US$0.40. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.17b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.40 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The consensus price target rose 7.2% to US$22.20despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of First Watch Restaurant Group's earnings by assigning a price premium. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values First Watch Restaurant Group at US$27.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$18.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that First Watch Restaurant Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while First Watch Restaurant Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.