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As you might know, FIGS, Inc. (NYSE:FIGS) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. FIGS missed earnings this time around, with US$110m revenue coming in 6.2% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.05 also fell short of expectations by 17%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for FIGS
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from FIGS' ten analysts is for revenues of US$521.6m in 2022, which would reflect a solid 18% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. FIGS is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.14 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$556.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.28 in 2022. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their sales forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.
The consensus price target fell 30% to US$21.55, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values FIGS at US$45.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$11.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that FIGS' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 24% annualised growth rate until the end of 2022 being well below the historical 39% growth over the last year. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.8% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that FIGS is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.