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It's shaping up to be a tough period for B&G Foods, Inc. (NYSE:BGS), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$461m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 18%, coming in at just US$0.09 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for B&G Foods
Taking into account the latest results, B&G Foods' four analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$1.93b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. B&G Foods is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.38 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.96b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.45 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.
The average price target fell 7.3% to US$8.21, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on B&G Foods, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$9.00 and the most bearish at US$7.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.1% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 3.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - B&G Foods is expected to lag the wider industry.