Earnings Miss: AO World plc Missed EPS By 49% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

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AO World plc (LON:AO.) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.4% to UK£2.27 in the week after its latest full-year results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of UK£1.7b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 49% to hit UK£0.037 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for AO World

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LSE:AO. Earnings and Revenue Growth July 4th 2021

Following the latest results, AO World's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of UK£1.92b in 2022. This would be a notable 15% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 40% to UK£0.052. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£1.90b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.13 in 2022. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 16% to UK£3.81, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on AO World, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£5.75 and the most bearish at UK£2.65 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of AO World'shistorical trends, as the 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 is roughly in line with the 18% annual revenue growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 16% per year. So although AO World is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.