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The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Amcor plc (NYSE:AMCR), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its third-quarter results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$3.3b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 13%, coming in at just US$0.14 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
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Following the latest results, Amcor's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$22.4b in 2026. This would be a substantial 66% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 17% to US$0.65. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$14.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.67 in 2026. While revenue forecasts have increased substantially, the analysts are a little more pessimistic on earnings, suggesting that the growth does not come without cost.
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The consensus price target was unchanged at US$11.59, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Amcor at US$13.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$10.83. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Amcor is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Amcor's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 50% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.5% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Amcor is expected to grow much faster than its industry.