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Alliance Pharma plc (LON:APH) just released its latest yearly report and things are not looking great. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with UK£167m revenue coming in 2.2% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.0017 missed the mark badly, arriving some 95% below what was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Alliance Pharma
Following the latest results, Alliance Pharma's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of UK£188.6m in 2023. This would be a solid 13% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 2,381% to UK£0.043. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£189.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.044 in 2023. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 6.2% to UK£0.91, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Alliance Pharma, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at UK£1.05 and the most bearish at UK£0.65 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Alliance Pharma's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2023 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 9.6% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.5% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Alliance Pharma to grow faster than the wider industry.