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McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. McDonald's missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of US$6.0b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.60, falling short by 2.8% and 3.3% respectively. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on McDonald's after the latest results.
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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for McDonald's from 30 analysts is for revenues of US$26.4b in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 2.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 7.0% to US$12.22. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$26.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$12.31 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
View our latest analysis for McDonald's
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$332, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic McDonald's analyst has a price target of US$364 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$300. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that McDonald's' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.1% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that McDonald's is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.