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Shareholders might have noticed that International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. (LON:IAG) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.3% to UK£3.24 in the past week. International Consolidated Airlines Group reported €32b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €0.56 beat expectations, being 4.5% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for International Consolidated Airlines Group
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from International Consolidated Airlines Group's 26 analysts is for revenues of €33.3b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 3.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 10% to €0.63. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €33.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.59 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 7.2% to UK£3.87. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values International Consolidated Airlines Group at UK£5.07 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£1.72. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the International Consolidated Airlines Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that International Consolidated Airlines Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 20% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that International Consolidated Airlines Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.