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When you buy shares in a company, there is always a risk that the price drops to zero. On the other hand, if you find a high quality business to buy (at the right price) you can more than double your money! For example, the Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN) share price has soared 105% return in just a single year. On top of that, the share price is up 34% in about a quarter. And shareholders have also done well over the long term, with an increase of 58% in the last three years.
Since the stock has added AU$915m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.
View our latest analysis for Evolution Mining
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Evolution Mining was able to grow EPS by 147% in the last twelve months. It's fair to say that the share price gain of 105% did not keep pace with the EPS growth. Therefore, it seems the market isn't as excited about Evolution Mining as it was before. This could be an opportunity.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Evolution Mining has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Evolution Mining, it has a TSR of 109% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Evolution Mining shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 109% over one year. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 10% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. If you would like to research Evolution Mining in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.