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Shareholders of Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 14% to €43.05 following its latest yearly results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of €85b and statutory earnings per share of €2.81 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Deutsche Post is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for Deutsche Post
Following the latest results, Deutsche Post's 13 analysts are now forecasting revenues of €86.9b in 2025. This would be a credible 2.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 8.6% to €3.14. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €86.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.13 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €43.12, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Deutsche Post analyst has a price target of €52.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €33.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Deutsche Post's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.2% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Deutsche Post is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.