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There's been a notable change in appetite for Boxlight Corporation (NASDAQ:BOXL) shares in the week since its second-quarter report, with the stock down 11% to US$0.49. It looks like weak result overall, with ongoing losses and revenues of US$39m falling short of analyst predictions. The losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share (statutory) loss of US$0.18 being 49% smaller than what the analysts had presumed. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Boxlight
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from three analysts covering Boxlight is for revenues of US$152.4m in 2024. This implies a noticeable 7.1% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 70% to US$1.40. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$175.6m and losses of US$1.38 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also making no real change to the loss per share numbers.
The average price target fell 38% to US$1.33, with the analysts clearly concerned about the weaker revenue outlook and expectation of ongoing losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Boxlight analyst has a price target of US$1.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$1.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 14% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 31% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.6% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Boxlight is expected to lag the wider industry.