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Last week saw the newest full-year earnings release from NZX Limited (NZSE:NZX), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of NZ$121m were in line with what the analysts predicted, NZX surprised by delivering a statutory profit of NZ$0.077 per share, a notable 17% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for NZX
Following the latest results, NZX's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of NZ$128.7m in 2025. This would be a credible 6.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 23% to NZ$0.06 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of NZ$125.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.059 in 2025. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the small increase to revenue estimates.
It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of NZ$1.75, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to NZX's valuation in the near term. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on NZX, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at NZ$1.80 and the most bearish at NZ$1.70 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the NZX's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that NZX's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like NZX is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.