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Fulcrum Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:FULC) just released its second-quarter report and things are looking bullish. Revenues of US$4.4m beat estimates by a substantial 129% margin. Unfortunately, Fulcrum Therapeutics also reported a statutory loss of US$0.60 per share, which at least was smaller than the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Fulcrum Therapeutics
Taking into account the latest results, the seven analysts covering Fulcrum Therapeutics provided consensus estimates of US$13.2m revenue in 2021, which would reflect an uneasy 14% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$2.47. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$9.70m and US$2.63 per share in losses. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.
The consensus price target rose 27% to US$26.29, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for next year. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Fulcrum Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$45.00 and the most bearish at US$11.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 25% by the end of 2021. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 454% over the last year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.6% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Fulcrum Therapeutics is expected to lag the wider industry.