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Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:FND) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.2% to US$95.09 in the week after its latest full-year results. Floor & Decor Holdings reported US$2.4b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.84 beat expectations, being 5.2% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Floor & Decor Holdings
Following the latest results, Floor & Decor Holdings' 18 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$3.02b in 2021. This would be a major 25% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 9.5% to US$1.86. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.94b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.88 in 2021. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a modest lift to to revenue forecasts.
The analysts increased their price target 7.0% to US$109, perhaps signalling that higher revenues are a strong leading indicator for Floor & Decor Holdings's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Floor & Decor Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$124 and the most bearish at US$90.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Floor & Decor Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 25% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 20%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Floor & Decor Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.