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Shareholders might have noticed that Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.3% to US$203 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$25b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Eli Lilly surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$6.79 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Eli Lilly
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Eli Lilly from 17 analysts is for revenues of US$27.6b in 2021 which, if met, would be a decent 12% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 16% to US$7.84. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$27.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.86 in 2021. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 6.8% to US$205. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Eli Lilly at US$245 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$120. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Eli Lilly's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 12% growth ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.7% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.6% next year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Eli Lilly to grow faster than the wider industry.