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The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on CureVac N.V. (NASDAQ:CVAC), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week. It was not a great statutory result, with revenues coming in 73% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, earnings also fell seriously short of forecasts, turning into a per-share loss of €0.23. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from six analysts covering CureVac is for revenues of €80.5m in 2025. This implies a substantial 85% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -€0.33 per share in 2025. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €66.7m and losses of €0.49 per share in 2025. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.
See our latest analysis for CureVac
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$6.29, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on CureVac, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$11.99 and the most bearish at US$2.01 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 92% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 50% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 17% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that CureVac's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.