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It's been a good week for Co-Diagnostics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CODX) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 3.9% to US$8.46. Revenues were US$20m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.26 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 18%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for Co-Diagnostics
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from three analysts covering Co-Diagnostics is for revenues of US$68.4m in 2021, implying a concerning 26% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 61% to US$0.70 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$68.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.70 in 2021. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 15% to US$23.00, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Co-Diagnostics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$30.00 and the most bearish at US$16.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 34% by the end of 2021. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 141% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.9% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Co-Diagnostics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.