In This Article:
Investors in Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSE:CHR) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.6% to close at CA$20.10 following the release of its first-quarter results. Revenues were CA$348m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at CA$0.70, an impressive 22% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, Chorus Aviation's seven analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be CA$1.39b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Chorus Aviation is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of CA$2.40 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$1.40b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$2.30 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Chorus Aviation's earnings potential following these results.
See our latest analysis for Chorus Aviation
The consensus price target was unchanged at CA$27.68, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Chorus Aviation, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$30.00 and the most bearish at CA$23.50 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Chorus Aviation is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.1% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 10% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.6% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Chorus Aviation is expected to lag the wider industry.