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It's been a good week for Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 5.1% to US$198. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$159b were what the analysts expected, Amazon.com surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$1.43 per share, an impressive 25% above what was forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Amazon.com
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Amazon.com's 62 analysts is for revenues of US$706.2b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 27% to US$6.03. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$704.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.81 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$229, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Amazon.com at US$285 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$180. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Amazon.com's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 15% over the past five years. Compare this to the 34 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Amazon.com's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.