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It's shaping up to be a tough period for Amarin Corporation plc (NASDAQ:AMRN), which a week ago released some disappointing first-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. The numbers were weak, with revenues of US$42m coming in 17% short of analyst estimates. Statutory losses were US$0.80 per share, 3.9% larger than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the three analysts covering Amarin provided consensus estimates of US$192.6m revenue in 2025, which would reflect an uncomfortable 10% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 44% to US$2.40. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$177.4m and losses of US$3.70 per share in 2025. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Amarin's future following the latest consensus numbers, with a considerable decrease in the loss per share forecasts in particular.
View our latest analysis for Amarin
Yet despite these upgrades, the analysts cut their price target 32% to US$13.50, implicitly signalling that the ongoing losses are likely to weigh negatively on Amarin's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Amarin, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$20.00 and the most bearish at US$7.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Amarin's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2025 compared to the historical decline of 20% per annum over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 18% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Amarin to suffer worse than the wider industry.