We recently compiled a list of the 10 Undervalued Stocks to Invest in According to Goldman Sachs. In this article, we are going to take a look at where e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (NYSE:ELF) stands against the other undervalued stocks favored by Goldman Sachs.
Sell-side analysts identify undervalued stocks by conducting thorough fundamental analysis and examining financial metrics like revenue, earnings, debt levels, and growth potential. They use valuation techniques such as complex DCF models or P/E ratios to compare a company’s performance against industry peers to spot discrepancies between stock price and intrinsic value. Goldman Sachs, known for its reputation and expertise, leverages advanced proprietary data models and quantitative methods to refine its recommendations, helping institutional investors identify high-potential stocks early before their mispricing gains broader market attention. Another important competitive advantage of GS is their large scale and vast team of analysts, which allow them to cover a wide range of companies in a timely manner.
Unlike other major banks, Goldman Sachs is also known for its highly skilled macro research team, which is known for occasionally making bold, out-of-consensus predictions regarding the broad market. One relatively recent example is an October 2024 paper in which the Goldman Sachs team expressed a rather pessimistic and significantly out-of-consensus view that the US stock market will likely deliver mediocre returns in the next 10 years, driven by high valuations and elevated market concentration. More precisely, Goldman Sachs estimated that the main US stock market index will only deliver a nominal annualized return of 3% during the subsequent 10 years, significantly below the 13% during the previous decade. Here’s a snippet of the report that sheds light on the causes of such potentially low future returns:
“Market concentration is particularly important today because the US equity market is currently near its highest level of concentration in 100 years. The intuition for why concentration matters for long-term returns relates to growth in addition to valuation. Our historical analyses show that it is extremely difficult for any firm to maintain high levels of sales growth and profit margins over sustained periods of time. The same issue plagues a highly concentrated index. As sales growth and profitability for the largest stocks in an index decelerate, earnings growth and therefore returns for the overall index will also decelerate. The current extremely high level of market concentration is one of the main drags on our return forecast. If our model were to exclude this variable, our baseline return forecast would be roughly 4 pp higher (7% rather than 3%)”
While the aforementioned findings are bad news for passive investors who are long the entire US equity market through ETFs and other broad market instruments, Goldman Sachs claims that peak market concentrations have historically been followed by prolonged periods of declining concentration. This trend has materialized through the equal-weight index—dominated by small caps—outperforming the value-weight index, which is largely driven by large caps. In other words, the key takeaway for investors is that pockets of outperformance will always exist, and hidden opportunities should be observed with smaller caps and underfollowed names. The Goldman Sachs team of analysts covers a wide array of stocks and regularly issues reports with ‘Buy’ ratings that could potentially uncover undervalued stocks to invest in. Their deep research and industry expertise provide valuable insights that allow investors to take advantage of market inefficiencies.
Is e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) an Undervalued Stock to Invest in According to Goldman Sachs?
A close up of the lip and eye products from the company on a model in a fashion and beauty shoot.
Our Methodology
To compile our list of 10 undervalued stocks we analyzed recent stock reports issued by Goldman Sachs analysts with a “Buy” rating. For each stock, we included the forward P/E ratio and ranked the companies from most expensive to least expensive. We also include the number of hedge funds that own each stock.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (NYSE:ELF) is a cosmetics company that offers affordable, high-quality beauty products across various categories, including makeup, skincare, and tools. Known for its value-driven approach, ELF targets a broad consumer base with products that focus on innovation, clean ingredients, and sustainability. The company sells its products through multiple channels, including e-commerce, retail stores, and third-party distributors. ELF emphasizes inclusivity and a strong digital presence, using social media and influencer partnerships to engage with its customer base. Its business model is built around affordable pricing, efficient production, and a focus on expanding its product offerings to meet evolving beauty trends.
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (NYSE:ELF) has demonstrated remarkable growth with a 30% net sales CAGR over the last 6 years, projecting $1.3 billion in net sales for the current year. The company has achieved consistent growth, being one of only 6 out of 546 consumer public companies that have grown for 24 consecutive quarters, averaging at least 20% sales growth. In color cosmetics, ELF holds the first position by unit share and is the second dollar-share brand with clear leadership potential given its growth profile. The company has successfully diversified its business, with skincare now representing almost 20% of its business, and international operations also accounting for nearly 20%, up from 10% just a few years ago.
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (NYSE:ELF)’s international business has been growing at a 55% CAGR over the last 5 years, though penetration remains at only 18% compared to global peers at 70%, indicating significant growth potential. The company maintains strong financial health with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at less than 1x leverage, while continuing to reinvest in infrastructure, working capital, distribution capacity, and technology. Looking forward, management projects strong net sales growth between 27% to 28% and adjusted EBITDA growth between 23% to 25% for 2025, with opportunities to double their business through expansion in cosmetics, skincare, and international markets. With a forward P/E ratio of 17.84, ELF is one of Goldman Sachs’s undervalued stocks.
Overall ELF ranks 7th on our list of the 10 undervalued stocks to invest in according to Goldman Sachs. While we acknowledge the potential of ELF as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ELF but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
