Duterte Arrest Raises Stakes in Clash for Control of Philippines
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Duterte Arrest Raises Stakes in Clash for Control of Philippines
Cliff Venzon and Manolo Serapio Jr.
4 min read
(Bloomberg) -- Three years ago, the most powerful political families in the Philippines joined hands to secure the nation’s biggest election victory in four decades. Now they are locked in a feud that threatens to derail one of Asia’s economic growth stars.
In dramatic events on Tuesday, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s government arrested and deported his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte to face the International Criminal Court in The Hague. The move came just over a month after the impeachment of his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, by allies of Marcos. A Senate trial, which would determine whether she gets removed from office, is scheduled to begin in July.
The push by Marcos to sideline his main political opponents marks a gamble that could easily backfire, starting with legislative elections in May that will determine how much he can accomplish in the final three years of his term. The Dutertes still hold clout, with Sara a top candidate in polls to win the next presidential vote in 2028.
Just prior to his arrest at the Manila airport, the elder Duterte was regaled by thousands of adoring supporters at a Hong Kong stadium, showing the enduring appeal of an outspoken politician frequently compared to Donald Trump. And while Marcos also remains popular, his approval ratings have declined in part due to stubbornly high inflation.
“If something bad happens to the economy, then sympathy might shift to the Dutertes,” said Bob Herrera-Lim, managing director of Teneo, a risk consultancy. “For the Marcoses, this is a calculated risk to eliminate the Dutertes as their primary opponent.”
The danger is that the political rift undermines business and household confidence, posing a headwind for growth in one of Asia’s best-performing economies. The Philippines’ benchmark stock index fell more than 2% on Tuesday, the most among Asian equity gauges and its biggest drop since Jan. 31.
For Duterte, 79, the next step is facing charges in the Netherlands-based ICC over his drug war that killed more than 6,000 people. Although Marcos initially refused to cooperate with the ICC, that stance changed last year, after ties with his deputy ruptured over policy differences.
Marcos has sought stronger ties with the US to confront Beijing in the disputed South China Sea — a sharp shift from Duterte’s China-friendly foreign policy. The Philippines has clashed frequently with China under Marcos, who has allowed the US to expand its military presence in the nation.
On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Beijing was following developments in the case, adding that the ICC should “exercise its functions and powers prudently in accordance with the law and prevent politicization or double standards.”
A former mayor of Davao City in the southern island of Mindanao, Duterte is known for his brash style of governance and expletive-laced rhetoric, and had defied criticisms from the West during his six-year term as president that ended in 2022. That earned him huge public support, which he retained even as he implemented the brutal anti-drug crackdown that led to his arrest on Tuesday.
“Duterte’s arrest is the most dramatic escalation yet in his feud with his ex-ally Marcos,” said Dereck Aw, a senior analyst at Control Risks.
Duterte had asked the Philippine Supreme Court to stop the enforcement of the ICC order, saying “foreign-issued arrest requests have no automatic legal effect” in the country. Marcos said he had to comply with Philippine commitments to Interpol, the global police coordination body.
His daughter Sara criticized the move, arguing it “shows the world that this government is willing to abandon its own citizen and betray the very essence of our sovereignty and national dignity.”
“Today, our own government has surrendered a Filipino citizen — even a former President at that — to foreign powers,” she said in a statement. “This is a blatant affront to our sovereignty and an insult to every Filipino who believes in our nation’s independence.”
Sara Duterte was impeached by Marcos’ allies in the House of Representatives last month on charges that she had plotted to kill Marcos and misused public funds — accusations she has denied.
The absence of any immediate public backlash against Duterte’s detention could give the Marcos administration a reason to push for Sara’s ouster, according to Herrera-Lim from Teneo.
“It increases the probability that the government will try to exert pressure on senators to convict Sara Duterte,” he said.
Hundreds of Duterte’s supporters held a rally and prayer vigil on Tuesday night beside the airport where the former leader was arrested. In his bailiwick region of Mindanao, thousands also gathered to protest his arrest. In Manila, human rights activists and families of those killed during the anti-drug campaign assembled to welcome the decision.
“Shifts in power and the end of the Marcos-Duterte alliance left him vulnerable,” Phil Robertson, director at Asia Human Rights and Labour Advocates, said of the former president. “And he was apparently the last one to realize it.”
--With assistance from Philip J. Heijmans, Claire Jiao and Ditas Lopez.
(Updates with statement from China in ninth paragraph. An earlier version corrected a company name in the 11th paragraph.)
