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Doug Ford Wins Third Majority in Ontario Election Dominated by Trade
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Doug Ford Wins Third Majority in Ontario Election Dominated by Trade
Melissa Shin and Stephanie Hughes
5 min read
(Bloomberg) -- Doug Ford won a third straight election to lead Ontario, as voters in Canada’s manufacturing heartland opted for a familiar face to steer an economy that’s under threat from US President Donald Trump’s trade policy.
Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party was elected in 80 of the 124 seats in the provincial legislature — one more than they held before the election was called and fewer than the 83 they originally won in the last election.
The New Democratic Party was second with 27 seats.
“This election, we asked the people for a mandate, a strong mandate that outlives and outlasts the Trump administration, a mandate to do whatever it takes to protect Ontario. Well, friends, the people have spoken,” said Ford, 60, in his victory speech before an enthusiastic crowd wearing blue “Canada Is Not For Sale” hats they were given upon entry.
“Canada won’t start a fight with the US, but you better believe we’re ready to win one.”
Ford forced the election more than a year early, saying his government needed a new mandate to spend the billions of dollars necessary to help the economy adjust if a trade war breaks out and causes large-scale job losses.
Ford has proposed trying to build a closer alliance with the US for the development of critical minerals and other sectors. That approach, which he nicknamed “Fortress Am-Can,” would help the US in its geopolitical and economic competition with China, the Ontario premier argued.
But Ford has also been a proponent of retaliation if the US goes ahead with tariffs. Ontario — the center of the country’s financial and automotive industries, as well as Canada’s most populous province — would be one of the most affected regions in a trade conflict, according to the Conference Board of Canada.
In the event of a trade war, Ford has floated the idea of curbing energy supplies to the US, taking all the US-made booze off the shelves of liquor stores, canceling the province’s contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink and excluding US companies from public-sector projects.
Trump said Thursday his administration plans to go ahead with tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico on March 4, which he outlined in an executive order on Feb. 1 but then delayed. Those tariffs were set at 25% on most products and 10% on energy.
The president has also threatened 25% tariffs on automobiles by early April, a move that would disrupt the Ontario plants owned by General Motors Co., Stellantis NV and others, along with parts suppliers. And the administration has also said it will place 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum on March 12.
The Council of Canadian Innovators encouraged the government to address the trade hostilities.
“Instead of relying on foreign direct investment as the primary engine of growth, Ontario’s economic policy should focus on supporting companies that are developing and commercializing intellectual property, strengthening supply chain resilience, and securing access to growth capital,” Skaidra Puodžiūnas, director of Ontario affairs with the CCI, said in a statement.
The CCI is chaired by Jim Balsillie, former Blackberry chief executive officer and John Ruffolo, founder of Maverix Private Equity.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau congratulated Ford on his victory, stating, “At this crucial time, we must work together to defend Canadian interests, protect workers and businesses, and grow our economy.”
Ontario voters perceived the premier, who has led the province since 2018, as a steady hand in a time of deep economic uncertainty.
Throughout the campaign, Ford was “really effective at maintaining the focus on the US threat, and in part that effectiveness was due to the continued dialog coming from the United States throughout the campaign,” said Julie Simmons, an associate professor of political science at the University of Guelph.
His main opponents, Bonnie Crombie of the Liberal Party and Marit Stiles of the NDP, were running for the first time as leaders of their parties. All three ran in greater Toronto.
Stiles is projected to win her seat, while Crombie is projected to lose hers. Crombie told supporters she planned to stay on as Liberal leader, pointing to her party regaining official status in the legislature and winning a greater share of the popular vote than the NDP.
Stiles and Crombie sought to paint Ford as untrustworthy, pointing to a police probe into allegations related to the government’s decision to open up environmentally protected land to housing developers — a move that made those parcels worth billions. A report by Bonnie Lysyk, then the province’s auditor-general, said certain developers received “preferential treatment” because they enjoyed special access to the housing minister’s chief of staff.
Ford, who reversed that decision and apologized in September 2023, told reporters he was “confident” nothing criminal took place, and a spokesperson for his campaign said he had not been contacted by the police.
Opposition leaders also highlighted Ford’s refusal to give a price tag for his idea to build a 31-mile tunnel under a major highway running through Toronto. By comparison, the 2.4-mile Hudson River Rail Tunnel is estimated to cost $16.1 billion and began construction in 2023 after more than a decade of false starts.
Crombie and Stiles also campaigned on improving health care and education in the province.
The PC Party received 43% of the popular vote, while the Liberals earned 30% and the NDP 18.6%.
Voter turnout was 45.4%, more than the record low of 44.1% recorded in 2022.
--With assistance from Laura Dhillon Kane.
(Updates with official election results beginning in the second paragraph.)
