Suggestions quantitative easing (QE) might go on a reunion tour in the U.S. helped to staunch market losses Thursday, but don't hold your breath waiting for the Federal Reserve to whip out the checkbook, analysts said.
"It's part of a strategy to calm markets down, to remind them that 'we still have your back and we're on top of this' from a central bank point of view," Mikio Kumada, global strategist at LGT Capital Partners, told CNBC. "Whether they will actually do it, I'm not so sure. At least as far as the U.S. is concerned, the economic conditions are decent enough."
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Stocks bounced back Thursday after a rough opening, with the S&P 500 (CME:Index and Options Market: .INX) ending the day less than a point higher, after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard Thursday morning suggested to Bloomberg TV, that the Fed should consider pausing its taper of the quantitative easing program.
"We have to make sure that inflation expectations remain near our target. And for that reason, I think a reasonable response by the Fed in this situation would be to... pause on the taper at this juncture, and wait until we see how the data shakes out in December," Bullard said.
The Federal Reserve had expected to complete the taper later this month.
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Those comments come two days after those of San Francisco Fed President John Williams (who, like Bullard, is a non-voting member of the Fed Open Market Committee). Williams told Reuters: "If we get a sustained, disinflationary forecast... then I think moving back to additional asset purchases in a situation like that should be something we seriously consider."
Some are extremely skeptical of a QE encore performance.
"The only thing that could justify QE4 is a high probability of a downturn in the real economy and/or falling core inflation," said Eric Chaney, chief economist at AXA Group , in a note. "The probability of a U.S. recession is close to zero," he said. "Overall, there is not one single indicator flashing red, as far as the risk of recession is concerned," he added, citing indicators such as the consumer debt-to-income ratio back at end-2002 levels, high corporate profitability and even the declining federal deficit.
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Even consumer inflation has lacked a distinctive downtrend, he noted, with falling energy prices and a stronger U.S. dollar offset by rising rents, house prices and likely wages. "There is no hint of a risk of falling inflation," he said.