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DOGE's cost-cutting claims aren't adding up. According to Bank of America Securities analysts, the team's reported $24.8 billion in savings is "overstated." DOGE has previously miscalculated contract values, with some numbers inflated by billions.
DOGE's savings from canceled or renegotiated contracts appear to be "overstated," according to a note from Bank of America Securities.
The cost-cutting team claims to have saved around $24.8 billion in contract cancellations and renegotiations as of March 30, up from $21.6 billion last week.
The BoA analysts noted that much of the jump appeared to come from a $2.9 billion contract cancellation for an unaccompanied childcare facility near the southern border. Savings connected to the Department of the Interior, which manages federal lands, are now $3.0 billion, up from $144 million last week.
DOGE also claimed credit for $4.1 million in savings from General Dynamics' IT support contract for the Office of Medicare Hearings and Appeals’ electronic appeal portal. Overall, the team's cuts have affected around $93 million in annual General Dynamics IT (GDIT) contracts, but analysts say this is still a relatively small change and only represents 0.7% of GDIT’s total revenue.
They also noted that, despite the cuts, GDIT has won $33.1 million in new contracts since Jan. 20.
DOGE also appears to have exaggerated its savings elsewhere. The team says it saved $9.1 million by cutting a CAE contract for flight simulator maintenance; however, the company had received less than $40,000 in payments from this contract in the last three years, so the real impact is small.
Experts told Fortune that, in cases like these, DOGE appeared to misunderstand how government contracts work, leading to inflated values. Government contracts sometimes have "ceiling values" that are far beyond what would actually have been spent.
Bank of America analysts also noted that the Department of Defense, which receives a significant portion of federal spending, remained largely unaffected. DOGE's reported savings from DoD contracts remain at $14.1 million, unchanged since March 24. USAID accounts for half of DOGE’s claimed savings, but many of the contract details have been deleted from the team's "Wall of Receipts," making it harder to independently verify the savings.
Representatives for DOGE did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fortune, made outside normal working hours.
DOGE's uncertain accounting
Elon Musk’s cost-cutting initiative, DOGE, wants to cut $1 trillion in federal spending by the end of the year, but many of the team's savings claims have been found to be drastically overstated.