After all the bombast and blunders. After Pussygate, Gropegate and “Nasty Woman.” After repeatedly disrespecting the parents of a heroic Muslim-American soldier. After suggesting he will not accept the results of the November 8 election.
After probably paying not a dime in federal income taxes for almost two decades. After allegedly flim-flamming Americans trying to get ahead with his so-called Trump University. After all that and more, does Donald John Trump, the 70-year-old New York real estate mogul and reality TV star still have a shot at being president of the United States? Really?
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The answer, according to the data-intensive website FiveThirtyEight, is yes – despite Hillary Clinton’s 5.8-point lead an average of national polls.
According to the site’s data calculations, out of 10,000 simulations of the Electoral College map, Trump comes out on top in 1,137 results. That gives him an 11.4 percent chance of winning. But to get to the magic electoral vote number of 270, FiveThirtyEight says Trump must almost certainly win six states: Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio.
Is that at all feasible?
In Florida, the RealClear Politics poll average today awards Hillary Clinton a 1.6-point edge. But a Bloomberg poll – the most recent there -- gives Trump a 2-point lead among all voters and the same advantage among critical independents. In 2012, Barack Obama took Florida by 0.9 percent, however he bested Mitt Romney by 3 points among independents. So for the sake of argument, cede Florida to Trump.
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The most recent poll in Iowa is from October 3-6, but Trump has a 3.7-point edge in a state that Obama won in 2012. The RCP average there also shows 8.3 percent for Gary Johnson, whose candidacy looks to be in free fall. As more voters move away from Johnson, expect Trump’s numbers to grow. Give him Iowa.
In Ohio, despite the disapproval of popular Governor and vanquished primary rival John Kasich, Trump has a 1.1 percent lead, according to RCP. But in the six most recent polls, he and Clinton are tied in two and she is ahead in one. In two of the three others in which Trump is ahead – including the most recent – his margin is 4 points. Put Ohio in the Trump column, too.
That leaves Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina.
In Arizona, Clinton has a 1.5-point lead in the RCP average of recent polls, though the most recent has Trump ahead by 1 percent. As The Washington Post reported on Tuesday, Clinton has opened 32 offices in Arizona and Trump has little or no ground game. Besides that, he remains at odds with both of Arizona’s senators, veteran John McCain and Jeff Flake.