Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRM, a leading Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) provider, has proven its ability to grow rapidly in North America. Building on this success, it entered the U.K. market last November, aiming to use the region as a launchpad for further European expansion. Despite its smaller population, the U.K.’s strong demand for BNPL services makes it an attractive opportunity.
However, Affirm faces significant challenges. The U.K. BNPL market is highly competitive, with established players like Klarna, Afterpay, and PayPal Holdings, Inc. PYPL vying for dominance. Furthermore, looming regulatory changes set to take effect next year will likely increase compliance costs and are expected to force BNPL providers to adopt stricter affordability checks, potentially narrowing their competitive edge. Per the Bank of England, consumer debt hit a record £232.6 billion in November, which will garner some attention from the regulators.
Major players in the BNPL market, anticipating upcoming regulations, have proactively ramped up compliance efforts, positioning themselves ahead of smaller competitors. This gives them a competitive edge as new rules come into effect.
As a relatively new entrant to the U.K. market, Affirm faces additional risks. It is entering a retail landscape overshadowed by a challenging economic outlook. Shares of leading British shopping chains have slumped recently, following lower-than-expected holiday sales and investor concerns about the country’s debt sustainability. This uncertain environment could pose headwinds for Affirm as it seeks to establish its presence and grow in the region.
AFRM’s Advantages
Despite the hurdles, Affirm is well-positioned to capitalize on its North American expertise. Its global partners, many already operating in the U.K. and Europe, will likely facilitate a smoother expansion. Affirm’s no-late-fees policy and longer, transparent payment terms could resonate with younger U.K. consumers, nearly a quarter of whom have incurred BNPL-related late fees. By leveraging its consumer-friendly approach and established partnerships, Affirm has the potential to stand out in this competitive and evolving market.
AFRM’s Price Performance & Valuation
Investors are optimistic about the company’s expansionary moves, which is reflected in its share price appreciation. Over the past three months, AFRM shares have surged 30.2%, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 Index’s 4.9% and 2.4% growth, respectively.
Price Performance – AFRM, Industry & S&P 500
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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In terms of valuation, the company is cheaply priced compared with the industry average. Currently, AFRM is trading at 5.19X forward 12-month sales, below the industry’s average of 7.85X. So, there’s more room to grow.
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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Affirm’s Strengths in Operations at a Glance
Affirm leverages advanced AI and machine learning to deliver flexible payment solutions for diverse merchants, from small businesses to global corporations. Its innovative risk management and credit underwriting models ensure tailored financial products with low fraud rates and high approvals. Network effects strengthen Affirm’s platform, with more than 323,000 active merchants and $7.6 billion in GMV (Q1 FY2025). Strategic partnerships with Amazon, Apple Pay, JD Sports, Alternative Airlines and Fexco expand its reach and diversify revenues.
As the e-commerce and BNPL markets grow, Affirm is well-positioned to meet demand with its robust product suite. Supported by growing cash reserves, the company aims for GAAP profitability by Q4 FY2025, capitalizing on key alliances and consumer trends.
Favorable Earnings Estimates for AFRM
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings indicates a 68.3% year-over-year improvement, while the estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings implies an increase of 206.9%. Moreover, the consensus mark for fiscal 2025 and 2026 revenues suggests 33.4% and 24% year-over-year growth, respectively. It beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 17.8%.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Affirm Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Affirm Holdings, Inc. Quote
Challenges for AFRM
Affirm’s heavy investment in technology and data analytics is vital for staying competitive in the fast-evolving digital payments space. However, these expenditures could weigh on the company’s profitability.
The platform also faces intense competition from established players, including credit and debit card solutions from financial giants like Visa Inc. V and Mastercard Incorporated MA, mobile wallets like PayPal, and "pay-over-time" options from rivals such as Block and Klarna. This crowded market increases pressure on Affirm’s profit margins while driving up marketing and customer acquisition costs. Staying ahead in innovation while managing expenses will be crucial for Affirm to maintain its competitive edge.
Conclusion: Hold the Line
While Affirm’s expansion into the U.K. market and its strategic alliances signal growth potential, investors should keep and eye on the challenges in a competitive and evolving BNPL landscape.
The company’s innovative technology, consumer-friendly policies and strong North American foundation position it well for the long-term. Valuation metrics and optimistic earnings projections suggest it has room to grow. However, rising costs and investments, intense competition, upcoming regulatory changes and a shaky U.K. retail environment present near-term headwinds. As such, its ability to navigate the hurdles ahead will be key.
For now, a neutral stance may be prudent, as the stock’s growth story depends on execution in both existing and new markets. Affirm currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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