Did The Underlying Business Drive Fevertree Drinks' (LON:FEVR) Lovely 318% Share Price Gain?

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We think all investors should try to buy and hold high quality multi-year winners. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. Don't believe it? Then look at the Fevertree Drinks Plc (LON:FEVR) share price. It's 318% higher than it was five years ago. This just goes to show the value creation that some businesses can achieve. The last week saw the share price soften some 3.7%.

See our latest analysis for Fevertree Drinks

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over half a decade, Fevertree Drinks managed to grow its earnings per share at 49% a year. This EPS growth is higher than the 33% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company. Having said that, the market is still optimistic, given the P/E ratio of 58.02.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
AIM:FEVR Earnings Per Share Growth February 18th 2021

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Fevertree Drinks' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Fevertree Drinks, it has a TSR of 329% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Fevertree Drinks shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 62% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 34% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It is all well and good that insiders have been buying shares, but we suggest you check here to see what price insiders were buying at.