Did You Manage To Avoid Civmec's (SGX:P9D) 44% Share Price Drop?

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Civmec Limited (SGX:P9D) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 19% in the last quarter. But over the last half decade, the stock has not performed well. In fact, the share price is down 44%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.

View our latest analysis for Civmec

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Looking back five years, both Civmec's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 31% per year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 11% compound annual share price fall. So the market may previously have expected a drop, or else it expects the situation will improve.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

SGX:P9D Past and Future Earnings, November 27th 2019
SGX:P9D Past and Future Earnings, November 27th 2019

This free interactive report on Civmec's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Civmec's TSR for the last 5 years was -41%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Civmec had a tough year, with a total loss of 14% (including dividends) , against a market gain of about 7.9%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 9.9% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. Before forming an opinion on Civmec you might want to consider these 3 valuation metrics.

But note: Civmec may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on SG exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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