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We think intelligent long term investing is the way to go. But no-one is immune from buying too high. For example the Countplus Limited (ASX:CUP) share price dropped 73% over five years. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least. On top of that, the share price has dropped a further 13% in a month.

Check out our latest analysis for Countplus

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, Countplus moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.

The most recent dividend was actually lower than it was in the past, so that may have sent the share price lower. On top of that, revenue has declined by 4.3% per year over the half decade; that could be a red flag for some investors.

The graphic below shows how revenue and earnings have changed as management guided the business forward. If you want to see cashflow, you can click on the chart.

We know that Countplus has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Countplus will earn in the future (free profit forecasts)

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Countplus's TSR for the last 5 years was -63%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Countplus shareholders are down 14% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 12%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 18% doled out over the last five years. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.