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It is doubtless a positive to see that the BAIC Motor Corporation Limited (HKG:1958) share price has gained some 40% in the last three months. But in truth the last year hasn't been good for the share price. After all, the share price is down 29% in the last year, significantly under-performing the market.
Check out our latest analysis for BAIC Motor
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the unfortunate twelve months during which the BAIC Motor share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 85%. It could be that the share price was previously over-hyped. The divergence between the EPS and the share price is quite notable, during the year. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.
BAIC Motor managed to grow revenue over the last year, which is usually a real positive. Since the fundamental metrics don't readily explain the share price drop, there might be an opportunity if the market has overreacted.
The graphic below shows how revenue and earnings have changed as management guided the business forward. If you want to see cashflow, you can click on the chart.
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think BAIC Motor will earn in the future (free profit forecasts)
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We've already covered BAIC Motor's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. BAIC Motor's TSR of was a loss of 28% for the year. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.
A Different Perspective
The last twelve months weren't great for BAIC Motor shares, which performed worse than the market, costing holders 28%, including dividends. The market shed around 2.8%, no doubt weighing on the stock price. Investors are up over three years, booking 4.7% per year, much better than the more recent returns. The recent sell-off could be an opportunity if the business remains sound, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long-term growth trend. Before forming an opinion on BAIC Motor you might want to consider the cold hard cash it pays as a dividend. This free chart tracks its dividend over time.