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When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Balmer Lawrie & Co. Ltd. (NSE:BALMLAWRIE) share price is up 16% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Unfortunately the share price is down 13% in the last year.
See our latest analysis for Balmer Lawrie
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Balmer Lawrie's earnings per share are down 1.6% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.
With EPS falling, but a modestly increasing share price, it seems that the market was probably too pessimistic about the stock in the past. Having said that, if the EPS falls continue we'd be surprised to see a sustained increase in share price.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Balmer Lawrie the TSR over the last 5 years was 42%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Balmer Lawrie shareholders are down 7.1% for the year (even including dividends) , but the market itself is up 2.6%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 7.2% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Importantly, we haven't analysed Balmer Lawrie's dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you're thinking of buying.