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Investors in Dexterra Group Inc. (TSE:DXT) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.9% to close at CA$6.44 following the release of its third-quarter results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at CA$0.12, some 42% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at CA$270m. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for Dexterra Group
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering Dexterra Group, is for revenues of CA$1.07b in 2025. This implies a chunky 9.2% reduction in Dexterra Group's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 62% to CA$0.74. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CA$1.08b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.78 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 5.0% to CA$9.03, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Dexterra Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$11.00 and the most bearish at CA$7.25 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 7.5% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 27% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Dexterra Group is expected to lag the wider industry.