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Last week, you might have seen that Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DHL) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.7% to €34.47 in the past week. Deutsche Post beat revenue expectations by 2.4%, at €21b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at €0.63, some 6.3% short of analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Deutsche Post
Following the latest results, Deutsche Post's 13 analysts are now forecasting revenues of €86.9b in 2025. This would be a satisfactory 2.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 17% to €3.25. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €87.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.32 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €42.79. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Deutsche Post analyst has a price target of €50.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €36.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Deutsche Post's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 7.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Deutsche Post is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.