Deutsche Bank: Concerns about Snapchat eating Facebook's lunch are 'overblown'

mark zuckerberg
mark zuckerberg

(Facebook chief executive and founder Mark Zuckerberg.Getty Images)

There have been some suggestions in the investor community recently that Snapchat's explosive user growth and the ramping up of its advertising offering could come at the expense of Facebook.

SunTrust analyst Bob Peck pointed out in April, for example, that Snapchat's daily video views have been growing much faster than that of Facebook. In a separate note published last month, Peck said of Snapchat's augmented reality prowess: "Snapchat has tapped into an unaddressed aspect of human behavior that other platforms haven't, creating a rare opportunity in the social media / messaging app ecosystem."

Meanwhile, a recent report from The Information suggested "between 2013 and 2015, the number of photos shared on average by each Instagram user fell," citing "two people briefed on the app’s internal data." Another report from The Information in April said a drop in posts was happening on Facebook.

But in a note published Wednesday, Deutsche Bank analysts say recent concerns about declining engagement on Facebook and Instagram as users switch to Snapchat "seem overblown."

(As an aside, Deutsche Bank seems particularly fond of using the "overblown" adjective. In another note published Wednesday, the bank said recent soured investor sentiment around Google was "overblown.")

The best is yet to come

Deutsche Bank's analysts note that many investor conversations recently have centered around the question: "Is 2016 the best it's going to get for Facebook?"

Deutsche Bank says no.

It notes that every quarter, more big brands are embedding Facebook tracking pixels on their sites so they can prove whether serving ads on Facebook drove actual sales or another form of conversion like an app download or an email newsletter sign-up.

These types of products allow Facebook to capture more big brand advertiser budgets outside its mobile gaming heartland, which drives a lot of its advertising revenue.

(Mobile app install ads make up a huge proportion of Facebook's revenue base, largely because it's easier for a mobile app company to track whether an ad led to a download – plus those types of companies tend to spend almost all of their ad budgets on online direct-response ads, whereas big brand marketers place a bigger majority of their spend on traditional media like TV and billboards.)

For example, Deutsche Bank says "nearly all" online travel agents and major hotel chains are using Facebook's Dynamic Product Ads, despite the travel version of that product only coming to market in the first quarter of this year.