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Deterra Royalties Limited (ASX:DRR) is reducing its dividend to A$0.09 on the 25th of Marchwhich is 40% less than last year's comparable payment of A$0.149. The dividend yield of 7.6% is still a nice boost to shareholder returns, despite the cut.
View our latest analysis for Deterra Royalties
Estimates Indicate Deterra Royalties' Could Struggle to Maintain Dividend Payments In The Future
A big dividend yield for a few years doesn't mean much if it can't be sustained. Prior to this announcement, Deterra Royalties' dividend was making up a very large proportion of earnings and perhaps more concerning was that it was 115% of cash flows. Paying out such a high proportion of cash flows can expose the business to needing to cut the dividend if the business runs into some challenges.
Looking forward, earnings per share is forecast to fall by 0.9% over the next year. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we believe the payout ratio could reach 97%, which could put the dividend under pressure if earnings don't start to improve.
Deterra Royalties' Dividend Has Lacked Consistency
Looking back, the dividend has been unstable but with a relatively short history, we think it may be a bit early to draw conclusions about long term dividend sustainability. Since 2021, the dividend has gone from A$0.049 total annually to A$0.293. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 56% over that duration. Dividends have grown rapidly over this time, but with cuts in the past we are not certain that this stock will be a reliable source of income in the future.
Dividend Growth Could Be Constrained
With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to see if earnings per share is growing. Deterra Royalties has impressed us by growing EPS at 15% per year over the past five years. Recently, the company has been able to grow earnings at a decent rate, but with the payout ratio on the higher end we don't think the dividend has many prospects for growth.
The Dividend Could Prove To Be Unreliable
Overall, the dividend looks like it may have been a bit high, which explains why it has now been cut. While we generally think the level of distributions are a bit high, we wouldn't rule it out as becoming a good dividend payer in the future as its earnings are growing healthily. We would probably look elsewhere for an income investment.
Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. Meanwhile, despite the importance of dividend payments, they are not the only factors our readers should know when assessing a company. For example, we've identified 3 warning signs for Deterra Royalties (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing. Looking for more high-yielding dividend ideas? Try our collection of strong dividend payers.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.