Consumers are bummed out, but they may be underestimating the health of the economy.
Eight months into Joe Biden’s presidential term, the economy earns a robust B+ grade, according to the Yahoo Finance Bidenomics Report Card. Our report card uses data provided by Moody’s Analytics to compare the Biden economy to that under seven prior presidents, going back to Jimmy Carter in the 1970s. We did the same for President Trump, beginning in 2017.
We track six economic indicators to assess the economy as ordinary people experience it: total employment, manufacturing employment, average hourly earnings, exports, stock prices and GDP per capita. Biden gets top marks in two of those categories—employment and exports—and high marks in three other categories. The weakest Biden numbers relate to earnings, though those have improved recently.
Timing is a huge factor in every president’s economic performance. Biden took office as the coronavirus vaccines were just becoming available and the pandemic recovery was ramping up. That’s why job gains under Biden have been so strong: employers have been hiring back millions of workers they let go during last year’s sharp downturn. The 4.8 million jobs gained under Biden, in fact, are 70% more than the second-best performance, which was 2.8 million jobs gained at the same point in Jimmy Carter’s presidency.
During Donald Trump’s first 8 months as president, the economy gained 1.4 million jobs. Under Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama, the economy lost 3.8 million jobs during the same timeframe. Again, timing: Trump took office amid a slow but prolonged recovery that continued until the Covid pandemic ended it in 2020. Obama took office during a brutal recession that had been underway for 13 months and would continue for the first four months of his first term.
Consumer confidence doesn’t reflect the relatively sound state of the economy, at the moment. Confidence rose during Biden’s first four months in office, as the vaccine rollout seemed to promise a return to normalcy. But confidence has fallen since midsummer as the Covid Delta variant kidnapped normalcy. Other pressures weighing on consumers include rising gas prices, product shortages and broader inflation worries. Our report card doesn’t track confidence directly, but other indicators would capture a collapse in confidence if it weakens underlying fundamentals.
Real GDP growth has been strong under Biden, registering the best performance since early in Jimmy Carter’s presidency. But that, too, is something of a distortion, reflecting a strong snapback after last year’s drop in output. Economists in recent weeks have been slashing their growth forecasts due to the Delta slowdown. A recession isn’t in the cards, but consumers can get gloomy when decelerating growth makes it feel like things are going the wrong direction.